On Targeting Frameworks And Optimal Monetary Policy

We show that speed limit policy, a monetary policy strategy that focuses on stabilizing inflation and the change in the output gap, consistently outperforms flexible inflation targeting and flexible price level targeting in empirical medium‐scale DSGE models under discretionary policymaking. In contrast to small‐scale New Keynesian models, this welfare ranking of the targeting frameworks is not overturned when inflation dynamics are mostly backward‐looking. Importantly, the performance of the speed limit policy shows less sensitivity to its parameterization than other frameworks that target the inflation rate or the price level.     

Impact of walking speed on tourist carrying capacity: The case of Maiji Mountain Grottoes,China

This paper analyzes the impact of walking speed on tourist carrying capacity. To do so, a combination of simulation experimentation and on-the-ground experiment is suggested to work in a study case, Maiji Mountain Grottoes, China. The simulation findings indicate that walking speed has a negative impact on tourist carrying capacity and the correlation coefficient is 0.64, for the reason that walking takes up more space. The on-the-ground experiment shows that carrying capacity is not a unified limit all over a destination, but changeable temporally and spatially, and its estimation needs to be adjusted according to the minimum area required per tourist and tourist activity. The method applied in this paper and the simulation findings can serve as a methodological tool for further research about tourist carrying capacity where the main activity of tourists is walking while watching.     

Co-creation with clients of hotel services: the moderating role of top management support

Hotels can strengthen their competitiveness by expanding their innovation process beyond the boundaries of the firm to exploit the valuable knowledge and skills of their customers. This study examines the effects of new service (NS) co-creation with customers in the hotel industry on NS performance, as well as the moderating role of top management support. The research also explores the main barriers faced by hotels to co-create service innovations. Partial least squares structural equation modelling results indicate that Customer co-creation exerts a direct impact on NS market outcomes and NS development (NSD) speed, which in turn favours NS quality. NS quality translates into better NS customer-related outcomes as well as in improved NS market outcomes. Top management support enhances the effect of Customer co-creation on the NSD speed. The main barrier to NS co-creation in hotels is to find customers interested in devoting time to this activity or with the appropriate knowledge and experience.     

Is faster or slower trading better? An examination of order type execution speed and costs

We examine order type execution speed and costs for US equity traders. Marketable orders that execute slower exhibit lower execution costs. Those who remove liquidity faster and pay higher trading costs transact in smaller size, spread trading across more venues, take more liquidity, and are better informed. Nonmarketable limit orders that execute slower exhibit greater adverse selection; and larger, uninformed traders who concentrate their trading in fewer venues submit them. Our findings suggest that slowing down the trading process, when faster options exist, can benefit certain market participants who seek to cross the bid–ask spread.     

Probabilistic wind forecasting up to three months ahead using ensemble predictions for geopotential height

We develop a method for forecasting the distribution of the daily surface wind speed at timescales from 15-days to 3-months in France. On such long-term timescales, ensemble predictions of the surface wind speed have poor performance, however, the wind speed distribution may be related to the large-scale circulation of the atmosphere, for which the ensemble forecasts have better skill. The information from the large-scale circulation, represented by the 500 hPa geopotential height, is summarized into a single index by first running a PCA and then a polynomial regression. We estimate, over 20 years of daily data, the conditional probability density of the wind speed at a specific location given the index. We then use the ECMWF seasonal forecast ensemble to predict the index for horizons from 15-days to 3-months. These predictions are plugged into the conditional density to obtain a distributional forecast of surface wind. These probabilistic forecasts remain sharper than the climatology up to 1-month forecast horizon. Using a statistical postprocessing method to recalibrate the ensemble leads to further improvement of our probabilistic forecast, which then remains calibrated and sharper than the climatology up to 3-months horizon, particularly in the north of France in winter and fall.     

微纳卫星组网星间链路设计及关键技术分析

微纳卫星组网应用可大幅度提高航天装备的能力，较单颗大卫星具有明显的优势。首先，介绍了国内外微纳卫星组网的研究情况，以组网侦察应用为例分析了星间测量与通信链路的技术需求，并进行了系统架构和体制设计；其次，在星座设计基础上开展系统仿真，并提出了一体化设备实现方案；最后，分析了微纳卫星组网系统中几项重要的关键技术及其解决方案，对系统的设计和工程实现具有参考价值。     

Promotion and Prevention Contracts in Industry Level Firm to Firm Dyad

ABSTRACT

Purpose

This article aims to introduce and distinguish two features of contract design – prevention and promotion contracts – and compares their effects on opportunism within the distributor–supplier relationship. It also examines the moderating role of ex post contract enforcement strategies.     

Internationalization speed and subsidiary survival of EMNCs: The moderating roles of CEO international experience and state ownership

In the process of internationalization, effective management of dispersed location-specific knowledge is the key to successful internationalization strategies for companies. Rapid internationalization often prevents multinational corporations (MNCs) from absorbing and internalizing internationalized knowledge in a timely manner and achieving ideal performance. Compared with MNCs in developed countries, emerging market multinationals (EMNCs) are more inclined to implement a rapid internationalization strategy to enhance their own competitive advantage. However, their internationalization process is limited by their lack of managerial resources. Why and how would internationalization speed impact the survival of EMNCs Subsidiary? Using the survival analysis method and taking the Chinese A-share listed companies as empirical setting, our results show that the internationalization speed negatively affects the survival of EMNCs Subsidiary; Both CEO international experience and state ownership weaken the negative impact of internationalization speed on the survival of EMNCs Subsidiary. We argue that rapid internationalization underestimates the Penrose effect in the process of internationalization, that is, underestimates the managerial resources required to learn and accumulate absorptive capacity, and effectively manage dispersed knowledge. Based on the dual context of dispersed knowledge management and managerial constraints, this paper expands the understanding of the impact mechanism of internationalization speed on corporate performance, and also has certain guiding significance for the selection of internationalization speed of EMNCs.     

Preventing motor vehicle crash injuries and deaths: science vs. folklore lessons from history

Abstract

Not long after the beginnings of motorization in the early 1900s, deaths and injuries from motor vehicle crashes became a problem in a number of high-income-countries (HIC)s, especially the United States. With the biggest problem the US led early efforts to address this issue, and for six decades these efforts were based on folklore (ie a body of widely held but false or unsubstantiated beliefs). They were not evaluated, but clearly were unsuccessful as crash deaths and injuries continued to rise. It was not until the 1970s that a broader range of countermeasures began to be adopted and was scientifically evaluated, and as a result, crash deaths and injuries declined. This history has important lessons today for many low-and-middle-income countries that have growing numbers of motor vehicle crash deaths and injuries, many of which are pedestrians and motorcyclists. This is because there continue to be advocates for many of the failed approaches (especially educational) that dominated the early efforts in HICs.     

Broadband speed and unemployment rates: Data and measurement issues

We examine the effects of broadband speed on county unemployment rates in the U.S. state of Tennessee. We merge the older National Broadband Map dataset and the newer FCC dataset in lengthening our broadband access data over the period 2011–2015. Extending the dataset improves the precision of the estimates. Our panel regressions control for potential selection bias and reverse causality and show that broadband speed matters: unemployment rates are about 0.26 percentage points lower in counties with high speeds compared to counties with low speeds. Ultra-high speed broadband also appears to reduce unemployment rates; however, we are unable to distinguish between the effects of high and ultra-high speed broadband. We document beneficial effects of the early adoption of high speed broadband on unemployment rates. Better quality broadband appears to have a disproportionately greater effect in rural areas.